Difference between revisions of "AI predictions"
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* 2024-12: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KFFaKu27FNugCHFmh/by-default-capital-will-matter-more-than-ever-after-agi By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI] (L Rudolf L) | * 2024-12: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KFFaKu27FNugCHFmh/by-default-capital-will-matter-more-than-ever-after-agi By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI] (L Rudolf L) | ||
* 2025-01: [https://lukedrago.substack.com/p/the-intelligence-curse The Intelligence Curse]: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people | * 2025-01: [https://lukedrago.substack.com/p/the-intelligence-curse The Intelligence Curse]: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==Job Loss== | ||
| + | * 2023-03: [https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130 GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models] | ||
| + | ** 2023-03: [https://www.livemint.com/news/world/these-jobs-are-most-at-risk-due-to-chatgpt-as-per-openai-study-11679358453267.html These jobs are most at risk due to ChatGPT, as per OpenAI study] | ||
| + | * 2023-08: [https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4527336 The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market] | ||
| + | ** [https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1722938749519077688 Freelancer sector shrinking] | ||
| + | [[Image:F-kVQuvWkAAemkr.png|400px]] | ||
| + | * 2023-11: [https://theaipi.org/ai-interactive-map/ New Analysis Shows Over 20% of US Jobs Significantly Exposed to AI Automation In the Near Future] | ||
| + | * 2024-01: [https://techcrunch.com/2024/01/09/duolingo-cut-10-of-its-contractor-workforce-as-the-company-embraces-ai/ Duolingo cuts 10% of its contractor workforce as the company embraces AI] | ||
| + | * 2024-02: [https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/c-suite-insights/the-leadership-agenda/gen-ai-is-a-tool-for-growth-not-just-efficiency.html#:~:text=One%20out%20of%20every%20four%20of%20the%204%2C702,to%20accomplish%20the%20same%20tasks%20with%20fewer%20workers Gen AI is a tool for growth, not just efficiency: Tech CEOs are investing to build their workforce and capitalise on new opportunities from generative AI. That’s a sharp contrast to how their peers view it.] | ||
| + | * 2024-04: [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/business/investment-banking-jobs-artificial-intelligence.html AI is Poised to Replace the Entry-Level Grunt Work of a Wall Street Career] | ||
| + | * 2024-08: [https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80e1gp9m9zo Klarna: AI lets us cut thousands of jobs - but pay more] | ||
=Science & Technology Improvements= | =Science & Technology Improvements= | ||
Revision as of 14:05, 3 January 2025
AGI Achievable
- Leopold Aschenbrenner: Situational Awareness: Counting the OOMs
- Richard Ngo: Visualizing the deep learning revolution
- Katja Grace: Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in pictures
- Epoch AI: Machine Learning Trends
- AI Digest: How fast is AI improving?
Economic and Political
- 2023-12: My techno-optimism: "defensive acceleration" (Vitalik Buterin)
- 2024-06: Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner) - select quotes, podcast, text summary of podcast
- 2024-12: By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI (L Rudolf L)
- 2025-01: The Intelligence Curse: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people
Job Loss
- 2023-03: GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
- 2023-08: The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market
- 2023-11: New Analysis Shows Over 20% of US Jobs Significantly Exposed to AI Automation In the Near Future
- 2024-01: Duolingo cuts 10% of its contractor workforce as the company embraces AI
- 2024-02: Gen AI is a tool for growth, not just efficiency: Tech CEOs are investing to build their workforce and capitalise on new opportunities from generative AI. That’s a sharp contrast to how their peers view it.
- 2024-04: AI is Poised to Replace the Entry-Level Grunt Work of a Wall Street Career
- 2024-08: Klarna: AI lets us cut thousands of jobs - but pay more
Science & Technology Improvements
- 2024-09: Sam Altman: The Intelligence Age
- 2024-10: Dario Amodei: Machines of Loving Grace
- 2024-11: Google DeepMind: A new golden age of discovery
