Difference between revisions of "AI predictions"
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=Economic and Political= | =Economic and Political= | ||
* 2023-12: [https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/11/27/techno_optimism.html My techno-optimism]: "defensive acceleration" ([https://vitalik.eth.limo/index.html Vitalik Buterin]) | * 2023-12: [https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/11/27/techno_optimism.html My techno-optimism]: "defensive acceleration" ([https://vitalik.eth.limo/index.html Vitalik Buterin]) | ||
| + | * 2024-03: Noah Smith: [https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/plentiful-high-paying-jobs-in-the Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI: Comparative advantage is very subtle, but incredibly powerful.] ([https://x.com/liron/status/1768013030741475485 video]) | ||
| + | * 2024-03: [https://doi.org/10.3386/w32255 Scenarios for the Transition to AGI] (AGI leads to wage collapse) | ||
* 2024-06: [https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf Situational Awareness] ([https://www.forourposterity.com/ Leopold Aschenbrenner]) - [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nP5FFYFjtY8LgWymt/quotes-from-leopold-aschenbrenner-s-situational-awareness select quotes], [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdbVtZIn9IM podcast], [https://danielmiessler.com/p/podcast-summary-dwarkesh-vs-leopold-aschenbrenner text summary of podcast] | * 2024-06: [https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf Situational Awareness] ([https://www.forourposterity.com/ Leopold Aschenbrenner]) - [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nP5FFYFjtY8LgWymt/quotes-from-leopold-aschenbrenner-s-situational-awareness select quotes], [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdbVtZIn9IM podcast], [https://danielmiessler.com/p/podcast-summary-dwarkesh-vs-leopold-aschenbrenner text summary of podcast] | ||
* 2024-12: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KFFaKu27FNugCHFmh/by-default-capital-will-matter-more-than-ever-after-agi By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI] (L Rudolf L) | * 2024-12: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KFFaKu27FNugCHFmh/by-default-capital-will-matter-more-than-ever-after-agi By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI] (L Rudolf L) | ||
Revision as of 14:08, 3 January 2025
AGI Achievable
- Leopold Aschenbrenner: Situational Awareness: Counting the OOMs
- Richard Ngo: Visualizing the deep learning revolution
- Katja Grace: Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in pictures
- Epoch AI: Machine Learning Trends
- AI Digest: How fast is AI improving?
Economic and Political
- 2023-12: My techno-optimism: "defensive acceleration" (Vitalik Buterin)
- 2024-03: Noah Smith: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI: Comparative advantage is very subtle, but incredibly powerful. (video)
- 2024-03: Scenarios for the Transition to AGI (AGI leads to wage collapse)
- 2024-06: Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner) - select quotes, podcast, text summary of podcast
- 2024-12: By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI (L Rudolf L)
- 2025-01: The Intelligence Curse: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people
Job Loss
- 2023-03: GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
- 2023-08: The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market
- 2023-11: New Analysis Shows Over 20% of US Jobs Significantly Exposed to AI Automation In the Near Future
- 2024-01: Duolingo cuts 10% of its contractor workforce as the company embraces AI
- 2024-02: Gen AI is a tool for growth, not just efficiency: Tech CEOs are investing to build their workforce and capitalise on new opportunities from generative AI. That’s a sharp contrast to how their peers view it.
- 2024-04: AI is Poised to Replace the Entry-Level Grunt Work of a Wall Street Career
- 2024-08: Klarna: AI lets us cut thousands of jobs - but pay more
Science & Technology Improvements
- 2024-09: Sam Altman: The Intelligence Age
- 2024-10: Dario Amodei: Machines of Loving Grace
- 2024-11: Google DeepMind: A new golden age of discovery
