Difference between revisions of "AI predictions"
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| + | =AGI Achievable= | ||
| + | * Leopold Aschenbrenner: [https://situational-awareness.ai/from-gpt-4-to-agi/#Counting_the_OOMs Situational Awareness: Counting the OOMs] | ||
| + | * Richard Ngo: [https://medium.com/@richardcngo/visualizing-the-deep-learning-revolution-722098eb9c5 Visualizing the deep learning revolution] | ||
| + | * Katja Grace: [https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/2023-ai-survey-of-2778-six-things Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in pictures] | ||
| + | * Epoch AI: [https://epoch.ai/trends Machine Learning Trends] | ||
| + | * AI Digest: [https://theaidigest.org/progress-and-dangers How fast is AI improving?] | ||
| + | |||
=Economic and Political= | =Economic and Political= | ||
* 2023-12: [https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/11/27/techno_optimism.html My techno-optimism]: "defensive acceleration" ([https://vitalik.eth.limo/index.html Vitalik Buterin]) | * 2023-12: [https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/11/27/techno_optimism.html My techno-optimism]: "defensive acceleration" ([https://vitalik.eth.limo/index.html Vitalik Buterin]) | ||
| + | * 2024-03: Noah Smith: [https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/plentiful-high-paying-jobs-in-the Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI: Comparative advantage is very subtle, but incredibly powerful.] ([https://x.com/liron/status/1768013030741475485 video]) | ||
| + | * 2024-03: [https://doi.org/10.3386/w32255 Scenarios for the Transition to AGI] (AGI leads to wage collapse) | ||
* 2024-06: [https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf Situational Awareness] ([https://www.forourposterity.com/ Leopold Aschenbrenner]) - [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nP5FFYFjtY8LgWymt/quotes-from-leopold-aschenbrenner-s-situational-awareness select quotes], [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdbVtZIn9IM podcast], [https://danielmiessler.com/p/podcast-summary-dwarkesh-vs-leopold-aschenbrenner text summary of podcast] | * 2024-06: [https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf Situational Awareness] ([https://www.forourposterity.com/ Leopold Aschenbrenner]) - [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nP5FFYFjtY8LgWymt/quotes-from-leopold-aschenbrenner-s-situational-awareness select quotes], [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdbVtZIn9IM podcast], [https://danielmiessler.com/p/podcast-summary-dwarkesh-vs-leopold-aschenbrenner text summary of podcast] | ||
* 2024-12: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KFFaKu27FNugCHFmh/by-default-capital-will-matter-more-than-ever-after-agi By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI] (L Rudolf L) | * 2024-12: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KFFaKu27FNugCHFmh/by-default-capital-will-matter-more-than-ever-after-agi By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI] (L Rudolf L) | ||
* 2025-01: [https://lukedrago.substack.com/p/the-intelligence-curse The Intelligence Curse]: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people | * 2025-01: [https://lukedrago.substack.com/p/the-intelligence-curse The Intelligence Curse]: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people | ||
| + | * 2025-01: Microsoft: [https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2025/01/03/the-golden-opportunity-for-american-ai/ The Golden Opportunity for American AI] | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==Job Loss== | ||
| + | * 2023-03: [https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130 GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models] | ||
| + | ** 2023-03: [https://www.livemint.com/news/world/these-jobs-are-most-at-risk-due-to-chatgpt-as-per-openai-study-11679358453267.html These jobs are most at risk due to ChatGPT, as per OpenAI study] | ||
| + | * 2023-08: [https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4527336 The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market] | ||
| + | ** [https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1722938749519077688 Freelancer sector shrinking] | ||
| + | [[Image:F-kVQuvWkAAemkr.png|400px]] | ||
| + | * 2023-09: [https://global-uploads.webflow.com/64d5f73a7fc5e8a240310c4d/650a128a34386a1206b6506c_FINAL%20Briefing%20-%20Adoption%20of%20Automation%20and%20AI%20in%20the%20UK.pdf What drives UK firms to adopt AI and robotics, and what are the consequences for jobs?] | ||
| + | ** [https://www.digitalinformationworld.com/2023/09/78-of-companies-say-ai-created-more-jobs.html 78% of Companies Say AI Created More Jobs] | ||
| + | * 2023-11: [https://theaipi.org/ai-interactive-map/ New Analysis Shows Over 20% of US Jobs Significantly Exposed to AI Automation In the Near Future] | ||
| + | * 2024-01: [https://techcrunch.com/2024/01/09/duolingo-cut-10-of-its-contractor-workforce-as-the-company-embraces-ai/ Duolingo cuts 10% of its contractor workforce as the company embraces AI] | ||
| + | * 2024-02: [https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/c-suite-insights/the-leadership-agenda/gen-ai-is-a-tool-for-growth-not-just-efficiency.html#:~:text=One%20out%20of%20every%20four%20of%20the%204%2C702,to%20accomplish%20the%20same%20tasks%20with%20fewer%20workers Gen AI is a tool for growth, not just efficiency: Tech CEOs are investing to build their workforce and capitalise on new opportunities from generative AI. That’s a sharp contrast to how their peers view it.] | ||
| + | * 2024-04: [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/business/investment-banking-jobs-artificial-intelligence.html AI is Poised to Replace the Entry-Level Grunt Work of a Wall Street Career] | ||
| + | * 2024-07: [https://www.wired.com/story/ai-is-already-taking-jobs-in-the-video-game-industry/ AI Is Already Taking Jobs in the Video Game Industry]: A WIRED investigation finds that major players like Activision Blizzard, which recently laid off scores of workers, are using generative AI for game development | ||
| + | * 2024-08: [https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80e1gp9m9zo Klarna: AI lets us cut thousands of jobs - but pay more] | ||
=Science & Technology Improvements= | =Science & Technology Improvements= | ||
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* 2024-10: Dario Amodei: [https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace Machines of Loving Grace] | * 2024-10: Dario Amodei: [https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace Machines of Loving Grace] | ||
* 2024-11: Google DeepMind: [https://www.aipolicyperspectives.com/p/a-new-golden-age-of-discovery A new golden age of discovery] | * 2024-11: Google DeepMind: [https://www.aipolicyperspectives.com/p/a-new-golden-age-of-discovery A new golden age of discovery] | ||
| + | |||
| + | =Plans= | ||
| + | * [https://www.narrowpath.co/ A Narrow Path: How to Secure our Future] | ||
| + | * Marius Hobbhahn: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bb5Tnjdrptu89rcyY/what-s-the-short-timeline-plan What’s the short timeline plan?] | ||
Revision as of 10:27, 4 January 2025
Contents
AGI Achievable
- Leopold Aschenbrenner: Situational Awareness: Counting the OOMs
- Richard Ngo: Visualizing the deep learning revolution
- Katja Grace: Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in pictures
- Epoch AI: Machine Learning Trends
- AI Digest: How fast is AI improving?
Economic and Political
- 2023-12: My techno-optimism: "defensive acceleration" (Vitalik Buterin)
- 2024-03: Noah Smith: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI: Comparative advantage is very subtle, but incredibly powerful. (video)
- 2024-03: Scenarios for the Transition to AGI (AGI leads to wage collapse)
- 2024-06: Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner) - select quotes, podcast, text summary of podcast
- 2024-12: By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI (L Rudolf L)
- 2025-01: The Intelligence Curse: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people
- 2025-01: Microsoft: The Golden Opportunity for American AI
Job Loss
- 2023-03: GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
- 2023-08: The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market
- 2023-09: What drives UK firms to adopt AI and robotics, and what are the consequences for jobs?
- 2023-11: New Analysis Shows Over 20% of US Jobs Significantly Exposed to AI Automation In the Near Future
- 2024-01: Duolingo cuts 10% of its contractor workforce as the company embraces AI
- 2024-02: Gen AI is a tool for growth, not just efficiency: Tech CEOs are investing to build their workforce and capitalise on new opportunities from generative AI. That’s a sharp contrast to how their peers view it.
- 2024-04: AI is Poised to Replace the Entry-Level Grunt Work of a Wall Street Career
- 2024-07: AI Is Already Taking Jobs in the Video Game Industry: A WIRED investigation finds that major players like Activision Blizzard, which recently laid off scores of workers, are using generative AI for game development
- 2024-08: Klarna: AI lets us cut thousands of jobs - but pay more
Science & Technology Improvements
- 2024-09: Sam Altman: The Intelligence Age
- 2024-10: Dario Amodei: Machines of Loving Grace
- 2024-11: Google DeepMind: A new golden age of discovery
Plans
- A Narrow Path: How to Secure our Future
- Marius Hobbhahn: What’s the short timeline plan?
