Difference between revisions of "AI predictions"
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* 2024-03: [https://doi.org/10.3386/w32255 Scenarios for the Transition to AGI] (AGI leads to wage collapse) | * 2024-03: [https://doi.org/10.3386/w32255 Scenarios for the Transition to AGI] (AGI leads to wage collapse) | ||
* 2024-06: [https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf Situational Awareness] ([https://www.forourposterity.com/ Leopold Aschenbrenner]) - [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nP5FFYFjtY8LgWymt/quotes-from-leopold-aschenbrenner-s-situational-awareness select quotes], [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdbVtZIn9IM podcast], [https://danielmiessler.com/p/podcast-summary-dwarkesh-vs-leopold-aschenbrenner text summary of podcast] | * 2024-06: [https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf Situational Awareness] ([https://www.forourposterity.com/ Leopold Aschenbrenner]) - [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nP5FFYFjtY8LgWymt/quotes-from-leopold-aschenbrenner-s-situational-awareness select quotes], [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdbVtZIn9IM podcast], [https://danielmiessler.com/p/podcast-summary-dwarkesh-vs-leopold-aschenbrenner text summary of podcast] | ||
| − | * 2024-09: OpenAI [Infrastructure is Destiny: Economic Returns on US Investment in Democratic AI] | + | * 2024-06: [https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/AI-and-Growth-Aghion-Bunel.pdf AI and Growth: Where Do We Stand?] |
| + | * 2024-09: OpenAI [https://cdn.openai.com/global-affairs/openai-infra-economics-10.09.24.pdf Infrastructure is Destiny: Economic Returns on US Investment in Democratic AI] | ||
* 2024-12: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KFFaKu27FNugCHFmh/by-default-capital-will-matter-more-than-ever-after-agi By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI] (L Rudolf L) | * 2024-12: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KFFaKu27FNugCHFmh/by-default-capital-will-matter-more-than-ever-after-agi By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI] (L Rudolf L) | ||
* 2025-01: [https://lukedrago.substack.com/p/the-intelligence-curse The Intelligence Curse]: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people | * 2025-01: [https://lukedrago.substack.com/p/the-intelligence-curse The Intelligence Curse]: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people | ||
* 2025-01: Microsoft: [https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2025/01/03/the-golden-opportunity-for-american-ai/ The Golden Opportunity for American AI] | * 2025-01: Microsoft: [https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2025/01/03/the-golden-opportunity-for-american-ai/ The Golden Opportunity for American AI] | ||
* 2025-01: [https://www.maximum-progress.com/p/agi-will-not-make-labor-worthless AGI Will Not Make Labor Worthless] | * 2025-01: [https://www.maximum-progress.com/p/agi-will-not-make-labor-worthless AGI Will Not Make Labor Worthless] | ||
| + | * 2025-01: [https://cdn.openai.com/global-affairs/ai-in-america-oai-economic-blueprint-20250113.pdf AI in America: OpenAI's Economic Blueprint] ([https://openai.com/global-affairs/openais-economic-blueprint/ blog]) | ||
| + | * 2025-01: [https://inferencemagazine.substack.com/p/how-much-economic-growth-from-ai How much economic growth from AI should we expect, how soon?] | ||
==Job Loss== | ==Job Loss== | ||
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* 2024-08: [https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80e1gp9m9zo Klarna: AI lets us cut thousands of jobs - but pay more] | * 2024-08: [https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80e1gp9m9zo Klarna: AI lets us cut thousands of jobs - but pay more] | ||
* 2025-01: [https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/4f39375d-59c2-4c4a-b394-f3eed7858c80/content AI and Freelancers: Has the Inflection Point Arrived?] | * 2025-01: [https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/4f39375d-59c2-4c4a-b394-f3eed7858c80/content AI and Freelancers: Has the Inflection Point Arrived?] | ||
| + | |||
| + | =Overall= | ||
| + | ==Bad Outcomes== | ||
| + | * 2019-03: [https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HBxe6wdjxK239zajf/what-failure-looks-like What failure looks like] | ||
| + | * 2025-01: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.16946 Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development] ([https://gradual-disempowerment.ai/ web version]) | ||
| + | ** 2025-02: [https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-risk-of-gradual-disempowerment The Risk of Gradual Disempowerment from AI] | ||
| + | |||
| + | =Psychology= | ||
| + | * 2025-01: [https://longerramblings.substack.com/p/a-defence-of-slowness-at-the-end A defence of slowness at the end of the world] | ||
=Science & Technology Improvements= | =Science & Technology Improvements= | ||
| Line 41: | Line 53: | ||
* [https://www.narrowpath.co/ A Narrow Path: How to Secure our Future] | * [https://www.narrowpath.co/ A Narrow Path: How to Secure our Future] | ||
* Marius Hobbhahn: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bb5Tnjdrptu89rcyY/what-s-the-short-timeline-plan What’s the short timeline plan?] | * Marius Hobbhahn: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bb5Tnjdrptu89rcyY/what-s-the-short-timeline-plan What’s the short timeline plan?] | ||
| + | * [https://cfg.eu/building-cern-for-ai/ Building CERN for AI: An institutional blueprint] | ||
Latest revision as of 10:09, 5 February 2025
Contents
AGI Achievable
- Leopold Aschenbrenner: Situational Awareness: Counting the OOMs
- Richard Ngo: Visualizing the deep learning revolution
- Katja Grace: Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in pictures
- Epoch AI: Machine Learning Trends
- AI Digest: How fast is AI improving?
Economic and Political
- 2023-12: My techno-optimism: "defensive acceleration" (Vitalik Buterin)
- 2024-03: Noah Smith: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI: Comparative advantage is very subtle, but incredibly powerful. (video)
- 2024-03: Scenarios for the Transition to AGI (AGI leads to wage collapse)
- 2024-06: Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner) - select quotes, podcast, text summary of podcast
- 2024-06: AI and Growth: Where Do We Stand?
- 2024-09: OpenAI Infrastructure is Destiny: Economic Returns on US Investment in Democratic AI
- 2024-12: By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI (L Rudolf L)
- 2025-01: The Intelligence Curse: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people
- 2025-01: Microsoft: The Golden Opportunity for American AI
- 2025-01: AGI Will Not Make Labor Worthless
- 2025-01: AI in America: OpenAI's Economic Blueprint (blog)
- 2025-01: How much economic growth from AI should we expect, how soon?
Job Loss
- 2023-03: GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
- 2023-08: The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market
- 2023-09: What drives UK firms to adopt AI and robotics, and what are the consequences for jobs?
- 2023-11: New Analysis Shows Over 20% of US Jobs Significantly Exposed to AI Automation In the Near Future
- 2024-01: Duolingo cuts 10% of its contractor workforce as the company embraces AI
- 2024-02: Gen AI is a tool for growth, not just efficiency: Tech CEOs are investing to build their workforce and capitalise on new opportunities from generative AI. That’s a sharp contrast to how their peers view it.
- 2024-04: AI is Poised to Replace the Entry-Level Grunt Work of a Wall Street Career
- 2024-07: AI Is Already Taking Jobs in the Video Game Industry: A WIRED investigation finds that major players like Activision Blizzard, which recently laid off scores of workers, are using generative AI for game development
- 2024-08: Klarna: AI lets us cut thousands of jobs - but pay more
- 2025-01: AI and Freelancers: Has the Inflection Point Arrived?
Overall
Bad Outcomes
- 2019-03: What failure looks like
- 2025-01: Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development (web version)
Psychology
Science & Technology Improvements
- 2024-09: Sam Altman: The Intelligence Age
- 2024-10: Dario Amodei: Machines of Loving Grace
- 2024-11: Google DeepMind: A new golden age of discovery
