Difference between revisions of "AI predictions"
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* 2024-10: Dario Amodei: [https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace Machines of Loving Grace] | * 2024-10: Dario Amodei: [https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace Machines of Loving Grace] | ||
* 2024-11: Google DeepMind: [https://www.aipolicyperspectives.com/p/a-new-golden-age-of-discovery A new golden age of discovery] | * 2024-11: Google DeepMind: [https://www.aipolicyperspectives.com/p/a-new-golden-age-of-discovery A new golden age of discovery] | ||
| + | * 2025-03: [https://finmoorhouse.com/ Fin Moorhouse], [https://www.williammacaskill.com/ Will MacAskill]: [https://www.forethought.org/research/preparing-for-the-intelligence-explosion Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion] | ||
=Plans= | =Plans= | ||
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** [https://www.nationalsecurity.ai/chapter/conclusion Conclusion] | ** [https://www.nationalsecurity.ai/chapter/conclusion Conclusion] | ||
** [https://www.nationalsecurity.ai/chapter/appendix Appendix FAQs] | ** [https://www.nationalsecurity.ai/chapter/appendix Appendix FAQs] | ||
| + | * Anthony Aguirre: [https://keepthefuturehuman.ai/ Keep The Future Human] ([https://keepthefuturehuman.ai/essay/ essay]) | ||
| + | ** [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeabrXV8zNE The 4 Rules That Could Stop AI Before It’s Too Late (video)] (2025) | ||
| + | **# Oversight: Registration required for training >10<sup>25</sup> FLOP and inference >10<sup>19</sup> FLOP/s (~1,000 B200 GPUs @ $25M). Build cryptographic licensing into hardware. | ||
| + | **# Computation Limits: Ban on training models >10<sup>27</sup> FLOP or inference >10<sup>20</sup> FLOP/s. | ||
| + | **# Strict Liability: Hold AI companies responsible for outcomes. | ||
| + | **# Tiered Regulation: Low regulation on tool-AI, strictest regulation on AGI (general, capable, autonomous systems). | ||
=See Also= | =See Also= | ||
* [[AI safety]] | * [[AI safety]] | ||
Latest revision as of 08:32, 13 March 2025
Contents
AGI Achievable
- Yoshua Bengio: Managing extreme AI risks amid rapid progress
- Leopold Aschenbrenner: Situational Awareness: Counting the OOMs
- Richard Ngo: Visualizing the deep learning revolution
- Katja Grace: Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in pictures
- Epoch AI: Machine Learning Trends
- AI Digest: How fast is AI improving?
AGI Definition
- 2023-11: Allan Dafoe, Shane Legg, et al.: Levels of AGI for Operationalizing Progress on the Path to AGI
- 2024-04: Bowen Xu: What is Meant by AGI? On the Definition of Artificial General Intelligence
Economic and Political
- 2023-12: My techno-optimism: "defensive acceleration" (Vitalik Buterin)
- 2024-03: Noah Smith: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI: Comparative advantage is very subtle, but incredibly powerful. (video)
- 2024-03: Scenarios for the Transition to AGI (AGI leads to wage collapse)
- 2024-06: Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner) - select quotes, podcast, text summary of podcast
- 2024-06: AI and Growth: Where Do We Stand?
- 2024-09: OpenAI Infrastructure is Destiny: Economic Returns on US Investment in Democratic AI
- 2024-12: By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI (L Rudolf L)
- 2025-01: The Intelligence Curse: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people
- 2025-01: Microsoft: The Golden Opportunity for American AI
- 2025-01: AGI Will Not Make Labor Worthless
- 2025-01: AI in America: OpenAI's Economic Blueprint (blog)
- 2025-01: How much economic growth from AI should we expect, how soon?
- 2025-02: Morgan Stanley: The Humanoid 100: Mapping the Humanoid Robot Value Chain
- 2025-02: The Anthropic Economic Index: Which Economic Tasks are Performed with AI? Evidence from Millions of Claude Conversations
- 2025-02: Strategic Wealth Accumulation Under Transformative AI Expectations
- 2025-02: Tyler Cowen: Why I think AI take-off is relatively slow
Job Loss
- 2023-03: GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
- 2023-08: The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market
- 2023-09: What drives UK firms to adopt AI and robotics, and what are the consequences for jobs?
- 2023-11: New Analysis Shows Over 20% of US Jobs Significantly Exposed to AI Automation In the Near Future
- 2024-01: Duolingo cuts 10% of its contractor workforce as the company embraces AI
- 2024-02: Gen AI is a tool for growth, not just efficiency: Tech CEOs are investing to build their workforce and capitalise on new opportunities from generative AI. That’s a sharp contrast to how their peers view it.
- 2024-04: AI is Poised to Replace the Entry-Level Grunt Work of a Wall Street Career
- 2024-07: AI Is Already Taking Jobs in the Video Game Industry: A WIRED investigation finds that major players like Activision Blizzard, which recently laid off scores of workers, are using generative AI for game development
- 2024-08: Klarna: AI lets us cut thousands of jobs - but pay more
- 2025-01: AI and Freelancers: Has the Inflection Point Arrived?
- 2025-01: Yes, you're going to be replaced: So much cope about AI
Overall
Surveys of Opinions/Predictions
Bad Outcomes
- 2019-03: What failure looks like
- 2025-01: Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development (web version)
Psychology
Science & Technology Improvements
- 2024-09: Sam Altman: The Intelligence Age
- 2024-10: Dario Amodei: Machines of Loving Grace
- 2024-11: Google DeepMind: A new golden age of discovery
- 2025-03: Fin Moorhouse, Will MacAskill: Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion
Plans
- A Narrow Path: How to Secure our Future
- Marius Hobbhahn: What’s the short timeline plan?
- Building CERN for AI: An institutional blueprint
- AGI, Governments, and Free Societies
Philosophy
- Dan Faggella:
- Joe Carlsmith: 2024: Otherness and control in the age of AGI
- Anthony Aguirre:
Alignment
- What are human values, and how do we align AI to them? (blog)
- Joe Carlsmith: 2025: How do we solve the alignment problem? Introduction to an essay series on paths to safe, useful superintelligence
- What is it to solve the alignment problem? Also: to avoid it? Handle it? Solve it forever? Solve it completely?
- When should we worry about AI power-seeking?
- Paths and waystations in AI safety
Strategic/Policy
- Amanda Askell, Miles Brundage, Gillian Hadfield: The Role of Cooperation in Responsible AI Development
- Dan Hendrycks, Eric Schmidt, Alexandr Wang: Superintelligence Strategy
- Anthony Aguirre: Keep The Future Human (essay)
- The 4 Rules That Could Stop AI Before It’s Too Late (video) (2025)
- Oversight: Registration required for training >1025 FLOP and inference >1019 FLOP/s (~1,000 B200 GPUs @ $25M). Build cryptographic licensing into hardware.
- Computation Limits: Ban on training models >1027 FLOP or inference >1020 FLOP/s.
- Strict Liability: Hold AI companies responsible for outcomes.
- Tiered Regulation: Low regulation on tool-AI, strictest regulation on AGI (general, capable, autonomous systems).
- The 4 Rules That Could Stop AI Before It’s Too Late (video) (2025)
