Difference between revisions of "AI predictions"

From GISAXS
Jump to: navigation, search
(Economic and Political)
(Strategic/Policy)
 
(3 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown)
Line 92: Line 92:
 
==National Security==
 
==National Security==
 
* 2025-04: Jeremie Harris and Edouard Harris: [https://superintelligence.gladstone.ai/ America’s Superintelligence Project]
 
* 2025-04: Jeremie Harris and Edouard Harris: [https://superintelligence.gladstone.ai/ America’s Superintelligence Project]
 +
 +
==AI Manhattan Project==
 +
* 2024-06: [https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf Situational Awareness] ([https://www.forourposterity.com/ Leopold Aschenbrenner]) - [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nP5FFYFjtY8LgWymt/quotes-from-leopold-aschenbrenner-s-situational-awareness select quotes], [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdbVtZIn9IM podcast], [https://danielmiessler.com/p/podcast-summary-dwarkesh-vs-leopold-aschenbrenner text summary of podcast]
 +
* 2024-10: [https://thezvi.substack.com/p/ai-88-thanks-for-the-memos?open=false#%C2%A7thanks-for-the-memos-introduction-and-competitiveness White House Memo calls for action on AI]
 +
* 2024-11: [https://www.uscc.gov/annual-report/2024-annual-report-congress 2024 Annual Report to Congress]: [https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/us-government-commission-pushes-manhattan-project-style-ai-initiative-2024-11-19/ calls] for "Manhattan Project-style" effort
 +
* 2025-05-29: [https://x.com/ENERGY/status/1928085878561272223 DoE Tweet]: "AI is the next Manhattan Project, and THE UNITED STATES WILL WIN. 🇺🇸"
 +
* 2025-07: [https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/how-big-could-an-ai-manhattan-project-get How big could an “AI Manhattan Project” get?]
  
 
=Near-term=
 
=Near-term=
Line 235: Line 242:
 
* 2025-06: [https://writing.antonleicht.me/p/ai-and-jobs-politics-without-policy AI & Jobs: Politics without Policy] Political support mounts - for a policy platform that does not yet exist
 
* 2025-06: [https://writing.antonleicht.me/p/ai-and-jobs-politics-without-policy AI & Jobs: Politics without Policy] Political support mounts - for a policy platform that does not yet exist
 
* 2025-06: [https://x.com/littIeramblings Sarah Hastings-Woodhouse]: [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mmdHBE6M2yiyL21-ctTuRLNH5xOFjqWm/view Safety Features for a Centralized AGI Project]
 
* 2025-06: [https://x.com/littIeramblings Sarah Hastings-Woodhouse]: [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mmdHBE6M2yiyL21-ctTuRLNH5xOFjqWm/view Safety Features for a Centralized AGI Project]
 +
* 2025-07: [https://writing.antonleicht.me/p/a-moving-target A Moving Target] Why we might not be quite ready to comprehensively regulate AI, and why it matters
  
 
=See Also=
 
=See Also=
 
* [[AI safety]]
 
* [[AI safety]]

Latest revision as of 11:46, 4 July 2025

Capability Scaling

GmZHL8xWQAAtFlF.jpeg

AGI Achievable

AGI Definition

Progress Models

AI impact models01.png

Economic and Political

Job Loss

F-kVQuvWkAAemkr.png

0dab4c86-882d-4095-9d12-d19684ed5184 675x680.png

National Security

AI Manhattan Project

Near-term

Overall

Surveys of Opinions/Predictions

Bad Outcomes

Intelligence Explosion

Gm-1jugbYAAtq Y.jpeg

Superintelligence

Long-range/Philosophy

Psychology

Science & Technology Improvements

Plans

Philosophy

GlchEeObwAQ88NK.jpeg

Research

Alignment

Strategic/Technical

Strategic/Policy

See Also