Difference between revisions of "AI predictions"

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* 2025-04: [https://epoch.ai/blog/trends-in-ai-supercomputers Trends in AI Supercomputers] ([https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.16026 preprint])
 
* 2025-04: [https://epoch.ai/blog/trends-in-ai-supercomputers Trends in AI Supercomputers] ([https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.16026 preprint])
 
* [https://ai-timeline.org/ The Road to AGI] (timeline visualization)
 
* [https://ai-timeline.org/ The Road to AGI] (timeline visualization)
 +
* 2025-09: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09677 The Illusion of Diminishing Returns: Measuring Long Horizon Execution in LLMs]
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* 2025-09: [https://www.julian.ac/blog/2025/09/27/failing-to-understand-the-exponential-again/ Failing to Understand the Exponential, Again]
  
 
==Scaling Laws==
 
==Scaling Laws==
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* 2023-11: Allan Dafoe, Shane Legg, et al.: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.02462 Levels of AGI for Operationalizing Progress on the Path to AGI]
 
* 2023-11: Allan Dafoe, Shane Legg, et al.: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.02462 Levels of AGI for Operationalizing Progress on the Path to AGI]
 
* 2024-04: Bowen Xu: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.10731 What is Meant by AGI? On the Definition of Artificial General Intelligence]
 
* 2024-04: Bowen Xu: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.10731 What is Meant by AGI? On the Definition of Artificial General Intelligence]
 +
* 2025-10: Dan Hendrycks et al.: [https://www.agidefinition.ai/paper.pdf A Definition of AGI]
  
 
==Progress Models==
 
==Progress Models==
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=Economic and Political=
 
=Economic and Political=
 
* 2019-11: [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3482150 The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market]
 
* 2019-11: [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3482150 The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market]
 +
* 2020-06: [https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/modeling-the-human-trajectory/ Modeling the Human Trajectory] (GDP)
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* 2021-06: [https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/report-on-whether-ai-could-drive-explosive-economic-growth/ Report on Whether AI Could Drive Explosive Economic Growth]
 
* 2023-10: Marc Andreessen: [https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/ The Techno-Optimist Manifesto]
 
* 2023-10: Marc Andreessen: [https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/ The Techno-Optimist Manifesto]
 
* 2023-12: [https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/11/27/techno_optimism.html My techno-optimism]: "defensive acceleration" ([https://vitalik.eth.limo/index.html Vitalik Buterin])
 
* 2023-12: [https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/11/27/techno_optimism.html My techno-optimism]: "defensive acceleration" ([https://vitalik.eth.limo/index.html Vitalik Buterin])
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* 2025-05: [https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/may/04/the-big-idea-can-we-stop-ai-making-humans-obsolete Better at everything: how AI could make human beings irrelevant]
 
* 2025-05: [https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/may/04/the-big-idea-can-we-stop-ai-making-humans-obsolete Better at everything: how AI could make human beings irrelevant]
 
* 2025-05: Forethought: [https://www.forethought.org/research/the-industrial-explosion The Industrial Explosion]
 
* 2025-05: Forethought: [https://www.forethought.org/research/the-industrial-explosion The Industrial Explosion]
 +
* 2025-05: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.20273 Ten Principles of AI Agent Economics]
 
* 2025-07: [https://substack.com/home/post/p-167879696 What Economists Get Wrong about AI] They ignore innovation effects, use outdated capability assumptions, and miss the robotics revolution
 
* 2025-07: [https://substack.com/home/post/p-167879696 What Economists Get Wrong about AI] They ignore innovation effects, use outdated capability assumptions, and miss the robotics revolution
 +
* 2025-07: [https://conference.nber.org/conf_papers/f227505.pdf We Wont be Missed: Work and Growth in the Era of AGI]
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* 2025-07: [https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/economics-transformative-ai/we-wont-be-missed-work-and-growth-era-agi We Won't Be Missed: Work and Growth in the Era of AGI]
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* 2025-09: [https://conference.nber.org/conf_papers/f227491.pdf Genius on Demand: The Value of Transformative Artificial Intelligence]
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* 2025-10: [https://peterwildeford.substack.com/p/ai-is-probably-not-a-bubble AI is probably not a bubble: AI companies have revenue, demand, and paths to immense value]
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* 2025-11: [https://windowsontheory.org/2025/11/04/thoughts-by-a-non-economist-on-ai-and-economics/ Thoughts by a non-economist on AI and economics]
  
 
==Job Loss==
 
==Job Loss==
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* 2025-07: Harvard Business Review: [https://hbr.org/2025/06/what-gets-measured-ai-will-automate What Gets Measured, AI Will Automate]
 
* 2025-07: Harvard Business Review: [https://hbr.org/2025/06/what-gets-measured-ai-will-automate What Gets Measured, AI Will Automate]
 
* 2025-08: [https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publications/canaries-in-the-coal-mine/ Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence]
 
* 2025-08: [https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publications/canaries-in-the-coal-mine/ Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence]
 +
* 2025-10: [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5560401 Performance or Principle: Resistance to Artificial Intelligence in the U.S. Labor Market]
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* 2025-10: [https://www.siliconcontinent.com/p/the-ai-becker-problem The AI Becker problem: Who will train the next generation?]
  
 
==National Security==
 
==National Security==
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** '''Extinction doctrine:''' Humanity will lose control of ASI, leading to extinction or permanent disempowerment
 
** '''Extinction doctrine:''' Humanity will lose control of ASI, leading to extinction or permanent disempowerment
 
** '''Replacement doctrine:''' AI will automate human tasks, but without fundamentally reshaping or ending civilization
 
** '''Replacement doctrine:''' AI will automate human tasks, but without fundamentally reshaping or ending civilization
 +
* 2025-09: Sean ÓhÉigeartaigh: [https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/cambridge-prisms-extinction/article/extinction-of-the-human-species-what-could-cause-it-and-how-likely-is-it-to-occur/D8816A79BEF5A4C30A3E44FD8D768622 Extinction of the human species: What could cause it and how likely is it to occur?]
  
 
==Intelligence Explosion==
 
==Intelligence Explosion==
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* 2025-01: [https://longerramblings.substack.com/p/a-defence-of-slowness-at-the-end A defence of slowness at the end of the world]
 
* 2025-01: [https://longerramblings.substack.com/p/a-defence-of-slowness-at-the-end A defence of slowness at the end of the world]
  
−
=Science & Technology Improvements=
+
=Positives & Optimism=
 +
==Science & Technology Improvements==
 +
* 2023-05: [https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/author/kelsey/ Kelsey Piper]: [https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/the-costs-of-caution/ The costs of caution]
 
* 2024-09: Sam Altman: [https://ia.samaltman.com/ The Intelligence Age]
 
* 2024-09: Sam Altman: [https://ia.samaltman.com/ The Intelligence Age]
 
* 2024-10: Dario Amodei: [https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace Machines of Loving Grace]
 
* 2024-10: Dario Amodei: [https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace Machines of Loving Grace]
 
* 2024-11: Google DeepMind: [https://www.aipolicyperspectives.com/p/a-new-golden-age-of-discovery A new golden age of discovery]
 
* 2024-11: Google DeepMind: [https://www.aipolicyperspectives.com/p/a-new-golden-age-of-discovery A new golden age of discovery]
 
* 2025-03: [https://finmoorhouse.com/ Fin Moorhouse], [https://www.williammacaskill.com/ Will MacAskill]: [https://www.forethought.org/research/preparing-for-the-intelligence-explosion Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion]
 
* 2025-03: [https://finmoorhouse.com/ Fin Moorhouse], [https://www.williammacaskill.com/ Will MacAskill]: [https://www.forethought.org/research/preparing-for-the-intelligence-explosion Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion]
 +
 +
==Social==
 +
* 2025-09: [https://blog.cosmos-institute.org/p/coasean-bargaining-at-scale Coasean Bargaining at Scale]: Decentralization, coordination, and co-existence with AGI
 +
* 2025-10: [https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c15309/c15309.pdf#page=15.23 The Coasean Singularity? Demand, Supply, and Market Design with AI Agents]
  
 
=Plans=
 
=Plans=
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*# [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/can-we-safely-automate-alignment Can we safely automate alignment research?] ([https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/17069901-can-we-safely-automate-alignment-research audio version], [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/video-and-transcript-of-talk-on-automating?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1022275&post_id=162375391&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=5av1bk&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email video version])
 
*# [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/can-we-safely-automate-alignment Can we safely automate alignment research?] ([https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/17069901-can-we-safely-automate-alignment-research audio version], [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/video-and-transcript-of-talk-on-automating?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1022275&post_id=162375391&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=5av1bk&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email video version])
 
*# [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/giving-ais-safe-motivations?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1022275&post_id=171250683&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=5av1bk&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email Giving AIs safe motivations] ([https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/17686921-giving-ais-safe-motivations audio version])
 
*# [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/giving-ais-safe-motivations?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1022275&post_id=171250683&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=5av1bk&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email Giving AIs safe motivations] ([https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/17686921-giving-ais-safe-motivations audio version])
 +
*# [https://joecarlsmith.com/2025/09/29/controlling-the-options-ais-can-pursue Controlling the options AIs can pursue] ([https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/17909401-controlling-the-options-ais-can-pursue audio version])
 
* 2025-04: Dario Amodei: [https://www.darioamodei.com/post/the-urgency-of-interpretability The Urgency of Interpretability]
 
* 2025-04: Dario Amodei: [https://www.darioamodei.com/post/the-urgency-of-interpretability The Urgency of Interpretability]
  

Latest revision as of 09:07, 5 November 2025

Capability Scaling

GmZHL8xWQAAtFlF.jpeg

Scaling Laws

See: Scaling Laws

AGI Achievable

AGI Definition

Progress Models

AI impact models01.png

Economic and Political

Job Loss

F-kVQuvWkAAemkr.png

0dab4c86-882d-4095-9d12-d19684ed5184 675x680.png

National Security

AI Manhattan Project

Near-term

Overall

Surveys of Opinions/Predictions

Bad Outcomes

Intelligence Explosion

Gm-1jugbYAAtq Y.jpeg

Superintelligence

Long-range/Philosophy

Psychology

Positives & Optimism

Science & Technology Improvements

Social

Plans

Philosophy

GlchEeObwAQ88NK.jpeg

Research

Alignment

Strategic/Technical

Strategic/Policy

Restriction

See Also

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