Difference between revisions of "AI predictions"
KevinYager (talk | contribs) (→Job Loss) |
KevinYager (talk | contribs) (→Economic and Political) |
||
| Line 19: | Line 19: | ||
* 2025-01: [https://cdn.openai.com/global-affairs/ai-in-america-oai-economic-blueprint-20250113.pdf AI in America: OpenAI's Economic Blueprint] ([https://openai.com/global-affairs/openais-economic-blueprint/ blog]) | * 2025-01: [https://cdn.openai.com/global-affairs/ai-in-america-oai-economic-blueprint-20250113.pdf AI in America: OpenAI's Economic Blueprint] ([https://openai.com/global-affairs/openais-economic-blueprint/ blog]) | ||
* 2025-01: [https://inferencemagazine.substack.com/p/how-much-economic-growth-from-ai How much economic growth from AI should we expect, how soon?] | * 2025-01: [https://inferencemagazine.substack.com/p/how-much-economic-growth-from-ai How much economic growth from AI should we expect, how soon?] | ||
| + | * 2025-02: [https://www.anthropic.com/news/the-anthropic-economic-index The Anthropic Economic Index]: [https://assets.anthropic.com/m/2e23255f1e84ca97/original/Economic_Tasks_AI_Paper.pdf Which Economic Tasks are Performed with AI? Evidence from Millions of Claude Conversations] | ||
==Job Loss== | ==Job Loss== | ||
Revision as of 13:42, 10 February 2025
Contents
AGI Achievable
- Leopold Aschenbrenner: Situational Awareness: Counting the OOMs
- Richard Ngo: Visualizing the deep learning revolution
- Katja Grace: Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in pictures
- Epoch AI: Machine Learning Trends
- AI Digest: How fast is AI improving?
Economic and Political
- 2023-12: My techno-optimism: "defensive acceleration" (Vitalik Buterin)
- 2024-03: Noah Smith: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI: Comparative advantage is very subtle, but incredibly powerful. (video)
- 2024-03: Scenarios for the Transition to AGI (AGI leads to wage collapse)
- 2024-06: Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner) - select quotes, podcast, text summary of podcast
- 2024-06: AI and Growth: Where Do We Stand?
- 2024-09: OpenAI Infrastructure is Destiny: Economic Returns on US Investment in Democratic AI
- 2024-12: By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI (L Rudolf L)
- 2025-01: The Intelligence Curse: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people
- 2025-01: Microsoft: The Golden Opportunity for American AI
- 2025-01: AGI Will Not Make Labor Worthless
- 2025-01: AI in America: OpenAI's Economic Blueprint (blog)
- 2025-01: How much economic growth from AI should we expect, how soon?
- 2025-02: The Anthropic Economic Index: Which Economic Tasks are Performed with AI? Evidence from Millions of Claude Conversations
Job Loss
- 2023-03: GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
- 2023-08: The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market
- 2023-09: What drives UK firms to adopt AI and robotics, and what are the consequences for jobs?
- 2023-11: New Analysis Shows Over 20% of US Jobs Significantly Exposed to AI Automation In the Near Future
- 2024-01: Duolingo cuts 10% of its contractor workforce as the company embraces AI
- 2024-02: Gen AI is a tool for growth, not just efficiency: Tech CEOs are investing to build their workforce and capitalise on new opportunities from generative AI. That’s a sharp contrast to how their peers view it.
- 2024-04: AI is Poised to Replace the Entry-Level Grunt Work of a Wall Street Career
- 2024-07: AI Is Already Taking Jobs in the Video Game Industry: A WIRED investigation finds that major players like Activision Blizzard, which recently laid off scores of workers, are using generative AI for game development
- 2024-08: Klarna: AI lets us cut thousands of jobs - but pay more
- 2025-01: AI and Freelancers: Has the Inflection Point Arrived?
- 2025-01: Yes, you're going to be replaced: So much cope about AI
Overall
Bad Outcomes
- 2019-03: What failure looks like
- 2025-01: Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development (web version)
Psychology
Science & Technology Improvements
- 2024-09: Sam Altman: The Intelligence Age
- 2024-10: Dario Amodei: Machines of Loving Grace
- 2024-11: Google DeepMind: A new golden age of discovery
