AI predictions

AGI Achievable

• Leopold Aschenbrenner: Situational Awareness: Counting the OOMs
• Richard Ngo: Visualizing the deep learning revolution
• Katja Grace: Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in pictures
• Epoch AI: Machine Learning Trends
• AI Digest: How fast is AI improving?

Economic and Political

• 2023-12: My techno-optimism: "defensive acceleration" (Vitalik Buterin)
• 2024-03: Noah Smith: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI: Comparative advantage is very subtle, but incredibly powerful. (video)
• 2024-03: Scenarios for the Transition to AGI (AGI leads to wage collapse)
• 2024-06: Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner) - select quotes, podcast, text summary of podcast
• 2024-06: AI and Growth: Where Do We Stand?
• 2024-09: OpenAI Infrastructure is Destiny: Economic Returns on US Investment in Democratic AI
• 2024-12: By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI (L Rudolf L)
• 2025-01: The Intelligence Curse: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people
• 2025-01: Microsoft: The Golden Opportunity for American AI
• 2025-01: AGI Will Not Make Labor Worthless
• 2025-01: AI in America: OpenAI's Economic Blueprint (blog)
• 2025-01: How much economic growth from AI should we expect, how soon?
• 2025-02: The Anthropic Economic Index: Which Economic Tasks are Performed with AI? Evidence from Millions of Claude Conversations
• 2025-02: Strategic Wealth Accumulation Under Transformative AI Expectations

Job Loss

• 2023-03: GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
  • 2023-03: These jobs are most at risk due to ChatGPT, as per OpenAI study
• 2023-08: The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market
  • Freelancer sector shrinking

• 2023-09: What drives UK firms to adopt AI and robotics, and what are the consequences for jobs?
  • 78% of Companies Say AI Created More Jobs
• 2023-11: New Analysis Shows Over 20% of US Jobs Significantly Exposed to AI Automation In the Near Future
• 2024-01: Duolingo cuts 10% of its contractor workforce as the company embraces AI
• 2024-02: Gen AI is a tool for growth, not just efficiency: Tech CEOs are investing to build their workforce and capitalise on new opportunities from generative AI. That’s a sharp contrast to how their peers view it.
• 2024-04: AI is Poised to Replace the Entry-Level Grunt Work of a Wall Street Career
• 2024-07: AI Is Already Taking Jobs in the Video Game Industry: A WIRED investigation finds that major players like Activision Blizzard, which recently laid off scores of workers, are using generative AI for game development
• 2024-08: Klarna: AI lets us cut thousands of jobs - but pay more
• 2025-01: AI and Freelancers: Has the Inflection Point Arrived?
• 2025-01: Yes, you're going to be replaced: So much cope about AI

Overall

Bad Outcomes

• 2019-03: What failure looks like
• 2025-01: Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development (web version)
  • 2025-02: The Risk of Gradual Disempowerment from AI

Psychology

• 2025-01: A defence of slowness at the end of the world

Science & Technology Improvements

• 2024-09: Sam Altman: The Intelligence Age
• 2024-10: Dario Amodei: Machines of Loving Grace
• 2024-11: Google DeepMind: A new golden age of discovery

Plans

• A Narrow Path: How to Secure our Future
• Marius Hobbhahn: What’s the short timeline plan?
• Building CERN for AI: An institutional blueprint

Alignment

• What are human values, and how do we align AI to them? (blog)
• Joe Carlsmith: How do we solve the alignment problem? Introduction to an essay series on paths to safe, useful superintelligence
  1. What is it to solve the alignment problem? Also: to avoid it? Handle it? Solve it forever? Solve it completely?
  2. When should we worry about AI power-seeking?