Difference between revisions of "AI predictions"

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(Capability Scaling)
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* 2019-03: Rich Sutton: [https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~eunsol/courses/data/bitter_lesson.pdf The Bitter Lesson]
 
* 2019-03: Rich Sutton: [https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~eunsol/courses/data/bitter_lesson.pdf The Bitter Lesson]
 
* 2020-09: Ajeya Cotra: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines Draft report on AI timelines]
 
* 2020-09: Ajeya Cotra: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines Draft report on AI timelines]
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* 2022-01: gwern: [https://gwern.net/scaling-hypothesis The Scaling Hypothesis]
 
* 2023-05: Richard Ngo: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BoA3agdkAzL6HQtQP/clarifying-and-predicting-agi Clarifying and predicting AGI]
 
* 2023-05: Richard Ngo: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BoA3agdkAzL6HQtQP/clarifying-and-predicting-agi Clarifying and predicting AGI]
 
* 2024-06: Aidan McLaughlin: [https://yellow-apartment-148.notion.site/AI-Search-The-Bitter-er-Lesson-44c11acd27294f4495c3de778cd09c8d AI Search: The Bitter-er Lesson]
 
* 2024-06: Aidan McLaughlin: [https://yellow-apartment-148.notion.site/AI-Search-The-Bitter-er-Lesson-44c11acd27294f4495c3de778cd09c8d AI Search: The Bitter-er Lesson]

Revision as of 09:54, 4 April 2025

Capability Scaling

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AGI Achievable

AGI Definition

Economic and Political

Job Loss

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Near-term

  • 2021-08: Daniel Kokotajlo: What 2026 looks like
  • 2025-02: Sam Altman: Three Observations
    1. The intelligence of an AI model roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it.
    2. The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and lower prices lead to much more use
    3. The socioeconomic value of linearly increasing intelligence is super-exponential in nature
  • 2025-03: Glimpses of AI Progress: Mental models for fast times
  • 2025-04: Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean: AI 2027 (pdf)

Overall

  • 2025-03: Kevin Roose (New York Times): Powerful A.I. Is Coming. We’re Not Ready. Three arguments for taking progress toward artificial general intelligence, or A.G.I., more seriously — whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist.
  • 2025-03: Nicholas Carlini: My Thoughts on the Future of "AI": "I have very wide error bars on the potential future of large language models, and I think you should too."

Surveys of Opinions/Predictions

Bad Outcomes

Intelligence Explosion

Psychology

Science & Technology Improvements

Plans

Philosophy

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Alignment

Strategic/Technical

Strategic/Policy

See Also