Difference between revisions of "AI predictions"
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+ | =AGI Achievable= | ||
+ | * Leopold Aschenbrenner: [https://situational-awareness.ai/from-gpt-4-to-agi/#Counting_the_OOMs Situational Awareness: Counting the OOMs] | ||
+ | * Richard Ngo: [https://medium.com/@richardcngo/visualizing-the-deep-learning-revolution-722098eb9c5 Visualizing the deep learning revolution] | ||
+ | * Katja Grace: [https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/2023-ai-survey-of-2778-six-things Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in pictures] | ||
+ | * Epoch AI: [https://epoch.ai/trends Machine Learning Trends] | ||
+ | * AI Digest: [https://theaidigest.org/progress-and-dangers How fast is AI improving?] | ||
+ | |||
=Economic and Political= | =Economic and Political= | ||
* 2023-12: [https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/11/27/techno_optimism.html My techno-optimism]: "defensive acceleration" ([https://vitalik.eth.limo/index.html Vitalik Buterin]) | * 2023-12: [https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/11/27/techno_optimism.html My techno-optimism]: "defensive acceleration" ([https://vitalik.eth.limo/index.html Vitalik Buterin]) |
Revision as of 10:46, 3 January 2025
AGI Achievable
- Leopold Aschenbrenner: Situational Awareness: Counting the OOMs
- Richard Ngo: Visualizing the deep learning revolution
- Katja Grace: Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in pictures
- Epoch AI: Machine Learning Trends
- AI Digest: How fast is AI improving?
Economic and Political
- 2023-12: My techno-optimism: "defensive acceleration" (Vitalik Buterin)
- 2024-06: Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner) - select quotes, podcast, text summary of podcast
- 2024-12: By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI (L Rudolf L)
- 2025-01: The Intelligence Curse: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people
Science & Technology Improvements
- 2024-09: Sam Altman: The Intelligence Age
- 2024-10: Dario Amodei: Machines of Loving Grace
- 2024-11: Google DeepMind: A new golden age of discovery