AI predictions

AGI Achievable

• Leopold Aschenbrenner: Situational Awareness: Counting the OOMs
• Richard Ngo: Visualizing the deep learning revolution
• Katja Grace: Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in pictures
• Epoch AI: Machine Learning Trends
• AI Digest: How fast is AI improving?

Economic and Political

• 2023-12: My techno-optimism: "defensive acceleration" (Vitalik Buterin)
• 2024-06: Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner) - select quotes, podcast, text summary of podcast
• 2024-12: By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI (L Rudolf L)
• 2025-01: The Intelligence Curse: With AGI, powerful actors will lose their incentives to invest in people

Science & Technology Improvements

• 2024-09: Sam Altman: The Intelligence Age
• 2024-10: Dario Amodei: Machines of Loving Grace
• 2024-11: Google DeepMind: A new golden age of discovery